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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 19 at the 63

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 13-K.Allen.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.46 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -2.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.77 EP