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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 79

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to BAL 22, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.48 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 36, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model