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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 61

Denver Broncos 14 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to CLE 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 11-J.Proche to CLE 27 for 9 yards (37-R.Moss; 48-M.Fraboni).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.89 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model