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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2023-11-26 · 16:05 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌨 Snow Spread 1.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

CLE
35.1%
DEN
64.9%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DEN: Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.022 vs Dorian Thompson-Robinson (CLE) -0.447 EPA/dropback
  • CLE offense: -0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.196 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • DEN defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 20
–
DEN 22
Projected margin: DEN by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CLE

Marquise Goodwin WR Out Concussion
Denzel Ward CB Out Shoulder
Jordan Kunaszyk LB Questionable Knee
Juan Thornhill S Questionable Calf
Anthony Walker LB Questionable Hamstring

DEN

Dwayne Washington RB Questionable Illness
P.J. Locke S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 12
–
DEN 29

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:18 TD DEN (8:18) (Shotgun) 25-S.Perine up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CLE 0 – DEN 6
  • Q2 11:14 TD DEN (11:14) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – DEN 13
  • Q2 06:02 FG CLE (6:02) 7-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 3 – DEN 14
  • Q2 00:25 FG CLE (:25) 7-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 6 – DEN 14
  • Q3 06:46 TD CLE (6:46) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short right to 88-H.Bryant for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 12 – DEN 14
  • Q3 01:28 FG DEN (1:28) 16-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. CLE 12 – DEN 17
  • Q4 13:37 TD DEN (13:37) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 82-A.Trautman. Denver challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 82-A.Trautman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 12 – DEN 23
  • Q4 04:23 FG DEN (4:23) 16-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. CLE 12 – DEN 27
  • Q4 02:24 SAF DEN (2:24) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (sack split by 99-Z.Allen and 42-N.Bonitto). CLE 12 – DEN 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 29%

    (4:40) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 88-H.Bryant. 88-H.Bryant FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 49, RECOVERED by DEN-98-M.Purcell at 50.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 51%

    (3:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right guard to CLE 37 for 5 yards (1-J.Thornhill, 6-J.Owusu-Koramoah). FUMBLES (6-J.Owusu-Koramoah), RECOVERED by CLE-91-A.Wright at CLE 34.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

    (6:02) 7-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 14 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:12) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to CLE 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 11-J.Proche to CLE 27 for 9 yards (37-R.Moss; 48-M.Fraboni).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 41%

    (1:19) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt right tackle to DEN 43 for 3 yards (96-T.Lancaster).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (:25) 7-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to CLE 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (6:46) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short right to 88-H.Bryant for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (1:28) 16-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:06) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to DEN 34, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 36 for 2 yards (38-A.Green).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 12 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to CLE 23, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 14 at the 33
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 73%

    (8:28) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker sacked at DEN 42 for -9 yards (6-P.Locke). FUMBLES (6-P.Locke) [6-P.Locke], RECOVERED by DEN-49-A.Singleton at DEN 42.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 94%

    (4:23) 16-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 58 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass incomplete short middle to 34-J.Ford [0-J.Cooper].

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 16 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 38%

    (2:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to CLE 5, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 18 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (:37) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to CLE 33, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.