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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 2

Cleveland Browns 6 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short right to 88-H.Bryant for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 2, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model