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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 5

Denver Broncos 14 – Cleveland Browns 12

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 16-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 5, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model