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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 66

Denver Broncos 24 – Cleveland Browns 12

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to CLE 23, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.55 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model