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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 47

Denver Broncos 27 – Cleveland Browns 12

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to CLE 5, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +1.41 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.11 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model