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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 18 at the 83

Denver Broncos 29 – Cleveland Browns 12

What Actually Happened

(:37) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to CLE 33, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.33 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 83, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 41, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model