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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 51

Cleveland Browns 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(4:40) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 88-H.Bryant. 88-H.Bryant FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 49, RECOVERED by DEN-98-M.Purcell at 50.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.53 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model