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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.16 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 63, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model