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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 52

Detroit Lions 6 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 3-J.Fox punts 38 yards to GB 14, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.04 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP