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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Thursday 2023-11-23 · 12:30 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

GB
30.4%
DET
69.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • GB offense: -0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Jared Goff (DET): +0.134 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 19
–
DET 26
Projected margin: DET by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

GB

Aaron Jones RB Out Knee
Darnell Savage S Out Calf
Josiah Deguara TE Doubtful Hip
De'Vondre Campbell LB Questionable Neck
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Shoulder
A.J. Dillon RB Questionable Groin
Rudy Ford S Questionable Biceps
Dontayvion Wicks WR Questionable Concussion

DET

Jonah Jackson G Out Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 29
–
DET 22

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:21 TD GB (12:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 11-J.Reed for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – DET 0
  • Q1 08:34 TD DET (8:34) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – DET 6
  • Q1 03:13 TD GB (3:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – DET 6
  • Q1 02:23 TD GB (2:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 19 for -4 yards (52-R.Gary). FUMBLES (52-R.Gary) [52-R.Gary], RECOVERED by GB-34-J.Owens at DET 27. 34-J.Owens for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. GB 20 – DET 6
  • Q2 06:00 FG GB (6:00) 17-A.Carlson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 23 – DET 6
  • Q3 11:52 TD DET (11:52) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – DET 12
  • Q3 03:36 TD GB (3:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 9-C.Watson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 29 – DET 14
  • Q4 00:46 TD DET (:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-K.Brooks]. Penalty on GB-91-P.Smith, Defensive Offside, declined. GB 29 – DET 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (15:00) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to DET 14 for no gain (32-B.Branch; 55-D.Barnes).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 31%

    (10:44) 3-J.Fox punts 38 yards to GB 14, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 89%

    (6:00) 17-A.Carlson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 72%

    (2:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 8-J.Reynolds (91-P.Smith).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 35%

    (:41) 19-D.Whelan punts 34 yards to DET 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 15 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:13) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to GB 44, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 25-K.Nixon.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 43%

    (7:49) 19-D.Whelan punts 44 yards to DET 3, impetus ends at DET 1, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-39-Z.Anderson.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 4 at the 77
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (5:32) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-J.Reeves-Maybin. 42-J.Reeves-Maybin right tackle to DET 23 for no gain (90-L.Van Ness, 94-K.Brooks).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 79%

    (13:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at GB 39 for -8 yards (52-R.Gary). FUMBLES (52-R.Gary) [52-R.Gary], touched at GB 39, RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at GB 39.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 40%

    (11:59) 19-D.Whelan punts 39 yards to DET 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (6:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 87-S.LaPorta.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 42 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 56%

    (2:53) 19-D.Whelan punts 33 yards to DET 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs to DET 40 for 7 yards (7-Q.Walker, 58-I.McDuffie).