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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 24

Green Bay Packers 20 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 17-A.Carlson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.43 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model