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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 50

Green Bay Packers 23 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(:41) 19-D.Whelan punts 34 yards to DET 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.82 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -1.91 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model