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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 42

Green Bay Packers 29 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 19-D.Whelan punts 33 yards to DET 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.00 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.89 EP