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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 67

Detroit Lions 14 – Green Bay Packers 29

What Actually Happened

(2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs to DET 40 for 7 yards (7-Q.Walker, 58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.19 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model