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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 86

Arizona Cardinals 8 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to LA 49, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.92 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 86, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model