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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2023-11-26 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

LA
58.5%
ARI
41.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.204 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LA offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Kyler Murray (ARI): -0.064 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

LA 24
–
ARI 20
Projected margin: LA by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

LA

Quentin Lake S Out Hamstring
Ben Skowronek WR Questionable Hip

ARI

Antonio Hamilton CB Out Groin
Kevin Strong DT Out Knee
Michael Wilson WR Out Shoulder
Jalen Thompson S Questionable Back
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Heel
Joey Blount S Questionable Knee
Emari Demercado RB Questionable Toe
Jonathan Ledbetter DE Questionable Shoulder
Jesse Luketa LB Questionable Ankle
Zach Pascal WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 37
–
ARI 14

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:23 TD LA (11:23) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 89-T.Higbee for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – ARI 0
  • Q1 04:54 TD ARI (4:54) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – ARI 6
  • Q2 10:01 TD LA (10:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-J.Ledbetter]. LA 13 – ARI 8
  • Q2 01:05 TD LA (1:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 20 – ARI 8
  • Q3 07:36 FG LA (7:36) 8-L.Havrisik 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 24 – ARI 8
  • Q4 12:45 TD LA (12:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-D.Gardeck]. LA 30 – ARI 8
  • Q4 08:27 TD LA (8:27) 24-R.Freeman right end for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 37 – ARI 8
  • Q4 05:17 TD ARI (5:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 83-G.Dortch for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 37 – ARI 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 91%

    (12:34) 23-K.Williams right tackle to ARI 14 for 8 yards (18-B.Ojulari, 44-O.Pappoe).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 56%

    (:40) 42-E.Evans punts 32 yards to ARI 10, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (15:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to LA 49, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:34) 12-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to LA 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-A.Trammell to LA 29 for 11 yards (52-V.Dimukeje).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 79%

    (3:41) 8-L.Havrisik 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 31%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 85-T.McBride (4-J.Fuller).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:43) 12-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to LA 27, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-44-O.Pappoe.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:19) (Punt formation) 12-B.Gillikin right end ran ob at ARI 38 for 10 yards (6-T.Tomlinson).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 17 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (11:29) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to LA 22, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (7:36) 8-L.Havrisik 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 65%

    (5:08) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 83%

    (9:08) 23-K.Williams left tackle to ARI 23 for 6 yards (13-K.Clark; 18-B.Ojulari).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 41 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 58%

    (3:36) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.12 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 83%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 4-R.Moore pushed ob at LA 14 for 15 yards (1-D.Kendrick).