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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 78

Arizona Cardinals 8 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 12-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to LA 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-A.Trammell to LA 29 for 11 yards (52-V.Dimukeje).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.90 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 78, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model