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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 52

Arizona Cardinals 8 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 85-T.McBride (4-J.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.60 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 52, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model