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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 22

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 23-K.Williams right tackle to ARI 14 for 8 yards (18-B.Ojulari, 44-O.Pappoe).

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.40 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 32, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model