Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 8 – Los Angeles Rams 21

(14:19) (Punt formation) 12-B.Gillikin right end ran ob at ARI 38 for 10 yards (6-T.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP