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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 17 at the 69

Arizona Cardinals 8 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to LA 22, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.80 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 27, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model