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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 38

Arizona Cardinals 8 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.91 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model