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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 29

Los Angeles Rams 31 – Arizona Cardinals 8

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 23-K.Williams left tackle to ARI 23 for 6 yards (13-K.Clark; 18-B.Ojulari).

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.02 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model