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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 41

Los Angeles Rams 37 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.77 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP