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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 29

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Los Angeles Rams 37

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 4-R.Moore pushed ob at LA 14 for 15 yards (1-D.Kendrick).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.10 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.12 EP