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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 82

New England Patriots 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to NYG 43, Center-49-J.Cardona. 44-N.McCloud MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 42, and recovers at NYG 42.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.20 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 82, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.42 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 40, worth -2.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP