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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2023-11-26 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -4.5 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

NE
45.4%
NYG
54.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.178 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.211 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Tommy DeVito (NYG) -0.247 vs Mac Jones (NE) -0.117 EPA/dropback
  • NE on 7 more days rest than NYG
  • NYG defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 20
–
NYG 21
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

NE

Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Hamstring
Trenton Brown T Questionable Ankle
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Knee
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Concussion
Riley Reiff T Questionable Knee
Matt Slater WR Questionable Ankle
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Shoulder

NYG

Evan Neal T Out Ankle
Dexter Lawrence DT Doubtful Hamstring
Darius Slayton WR Doubtful Neck
Eric Gray RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 7
–
NYG 10

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 02:00 TD NYG (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short left to 18-I.Hodgins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – NYG 6
  • Q3 08:06 TD NE (8:06) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – NYG 7
  • Q4 08:13 FG NYG (8:13) 46-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NE 7 – NYG 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 53 yards to NYG 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 24 for 6 yards (22-C.Davis).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 17 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (9:19) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to NE 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 81-D.Douglas MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 13. 81-D.Douglas pushed ob at NE 20 for 7 yards (52-C.Coughlin).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 64%

    (5:03) 17-B.Baringer punts 31 yards to NYG 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-41-B.Schooler.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (2:10) 6-J.Gillan punts 74 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 12 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 56%

    (14:13) 6-J.Gillan punts 31 yards to NE 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:41) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to NYG 43, Center-49-J.Cardona. 44-N.McCloud MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 42, and recovers at NYG 42.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 24%

    (11:12) 6-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to NE 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas. PENALTY on NE-99-K.White, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced at NE 16.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:28) 17-B.Baringer punts 54 yards to NYG 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:41) 6-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to NE 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 81-D.Douglas ran ob at NE 9 for no gain.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 61%

    (12:23) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 38-R.Stevenson. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NYG 35 for 3 yards (91-As.Robinson).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 12 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 50%

    (3:28) 6-J.Gillan punts 32 yards to NE 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (:59) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to NYG 19, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:16) 6-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to NE 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 81-D.Douglas to NE 30 for 5 yards (47-C.Brown). FUMBLES (47-C.Brown), touched at NE 27, ball out of bounds at NE 24. NE-81-D.Douglas was injured during the play. Officially, a return for 2 yards.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 17 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 88%

    (8:13) 46-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 18 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (5:40) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYG 22, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:26) 6-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to NE 38, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 27-M.Bryant to 50 for 12 yards (59-C.Kreiter, 44-N.McCloud).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 45%

    (1:58) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left to 7-J.Smith-Schuster pushed ob at NYG 39 for 5 yards (22-A.Jackson).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (:06) 37-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. PENALTY on NYG-29-X.McKinney, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 12 yards, enforced between downs.