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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 53

New York Giants 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 6-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to NE 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas. PENALTY on NE-99-K.White, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced at NE 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.11 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model