Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 77

New England Patriots 0 – New York Giants 7

(1:28) 17-B.Baringer punts 54 yards to NYG 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 77, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model