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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 59

New York Giants 7 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(:41) 6-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to NE 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 81-D.Douglas ran ob at NE 9 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.52 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -2.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model