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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 38

New England Patriots 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(12:23) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 38-R.Stevenson. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NYG 35 for 3 yards (91-As.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.60 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model