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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 42

New York Giants 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 6-J.Gillan punts 32 yards to NE 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.98 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model