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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 61

New England Patriots 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(:59) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to NYG 19, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.51 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 61, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP