Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 71

New England Patriots 0 – New York Giants 0

(10:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 53 yards to NYG 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 24 for 6 yards (22-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.52 EP
63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 71, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model