Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 78

New York Giants 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 6-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to NE 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 81-D.Douglas to NE 30 for 5 yards (47-C.Brown). FUMBLES (47-C.Brown), touched at NE 27, ball out of bounds at NE 24. NE-81-D.Douglas was injured during the play. Officially, a return for 2 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.55 EP
62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model