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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 24

New York Giants 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 46-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.41 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model