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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 76

New York Giants 10 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 6-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to NE 38, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 27-M.Bryant to 50 for 12 yards (59-C.Kreiter, 44-N.McCloud).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.16 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 76, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model