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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 17

New England Patriots 7 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(:06) 37-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. PENALTY on NYG-29-X.McKinney, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 12 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +2.12 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 17, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model