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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 74

New York Giants 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 6-J.Gillan punts 74 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.43 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP