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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 6-P.Harvin punts 31 yards to CIN 11, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.56 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model