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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2023-11-26 · 13:00 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.0 O/U 36.0

Win Probability

PIT
48.0%
CIN
52.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PIT: Jake Browning (CIN) -0.316 vs Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.104 EPA/dropback (CIN starting Jake Browning in place of Joe Burrow)
  • PIT offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • CIN on 3 more days rest than PIT
  • Jake Browning (CIN) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

PIT 19
–
CIN 20
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

PIT

Minkah Fitzpatrick S Out Hamstring
Montravius Adams DT Out Ankle
James Pierre CB Questionable Shoulder

CIN

Joe Burrow QB Out right Wrist
Tee Higgins WR Out Hamstring
Cam Taylor-Britt CB Out Quadricep
D'Ante Smith T Doubtful Knee
Germaine Pratt LB Questionable Illness
Chase Brown RB Questionable Hamstring
Akeem Davis-Gaither LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 16
–
CIN 10

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:44 FG PIT (12:44) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 3 – CIN 0
  • Q2 10:36 TD CIN (10:36) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 89-D.Sample for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – CIN 6
  • Q3 01:38 TD PIT (1:38) 22-N.Harris left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – CIN 7
  • Q4 08:08 FG PIT (8:08) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 13 – CIN 7
  • Q4 02:55 FG PIT (2:55) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 16 – CIN 7
  • Q4 02:09 FG CIN (2:09) 2-E.McPherson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. PIT 16 – CIN 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 45%

    (12:18) 6-P.Harvin punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:42) 10-B.Robbins punts 44 yards to PIT 39, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin to PIT 49 for 10 yards (33-N.Scott; 89-D.Sample). PENALTY on PIT-93-M.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 39.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 30%

    (1:29) 10-B.Robbins punts 38 yards to PIT 11, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 88%

    (12:44) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:24) 6-P.Harvin punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:30) 10-B.Robbins punts 44 yards to PIT 40, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 45 for 5 yards (80-A.Iosivas).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 48%

    (3:45) 6-P.Harvin punts 31 yards to CIN 11, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 45%

    (1:45) 10-B.Robbins punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 35%

    (:33) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 18 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:16) 10-B.Robbins punts 41 yards to PIT 32, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds. PENALTY on PIT-49-T.Carpenter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 32.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (8:08) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:07) 10-B.Robbins punts 41 yards to PIT 36, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin to PIT 33 for -3 yards (38-D.Ivey).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 95%

    (2:55) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 81%

    (2:09) 2-E.McPherson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.