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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 43

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 6-P.Harvin punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.89 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP