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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 16

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 16, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model