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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 28

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 2-E.McPherson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.91 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model