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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 49

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 10-B.Robbins punts 38 yards to PIT 11, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.50 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model