Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 71

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Indianapolis Colts 17

(7:36) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to IND 8, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-52-K.Britt.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.67 EP
57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model