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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2023-11-26 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

TB
37.8%
IND
62.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND on 7 more days rest than TB
  • TB offense: -0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TB 21
–
IND 25
Projected margin: IND by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

TB

Lavonte David LB Out Groin
Jamel Dean CB Out Ankle
Rachaad White RB Questionable Knee
Mike Greene DT Questionable Calf
Logan Hall DE Questionable Illness
Carlton Davis CB Questionable Hip
Devin White LB Questionable Foot

IND

Julius Brents CB Out Quadricep
Ryan Kelly C Out Concussion
Andrew Ogletree TE Out Foot
Grant Stuard LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 20
–
IND 27

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:31 FG TB (7:31) 4-C.McLaughlin 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – IND 0
  • Q1 03:05 FG IND (3:05) 7-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. TB 3 – IND 3
  • Q1 00:16 TD IND (:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – IND 9
  • Q2 09:42 TD IND (9:42) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – IND 16
  • Q2 05:12 TD TB (5:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-93-E.Johnson, Defensive Offside, declined. TB 9 – IND 17
  • Q3 10:05 FG IND (10:05) 7-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. TB 10 – IND 20
  • Q4 12:55 TD TB (12:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – IND 20
  • Q4 07:33 TD IND (7:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 17 – IND 26
  • Q4 04:13 FG TB (4:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 20 – IND 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 99%

    (7:31) 4-C.McLaughlin 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 19 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 84%

    (3:05) 7-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 29%

    (12:51) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 11-M.Pittman pushed ob at TB 29 for 24 yards (31-A.Winfield).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:36) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to IND 8, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-52-K.Britt.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:48) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to TB 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 14 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 53%

    (1:52) 5-J.Camarda punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 45%

    (:07) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to TB 40 for 6 yards (24-C.Davis).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (10:05) 7-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 11 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 58%

    (6:17) 5-J.Camarda punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 60%

    (1:50) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Downs (30-D.Delaney).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 50%

    (14:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at IND 25 for 19 yards (39-D.Baker).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 38%

    (9:11) 73-B.Freeland reported in as eligible. 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 81-M.Alie-Cox to TB 19 for 30 yards (8-S.Dennis). TB-8-S.Dennis was injured during the play.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (4:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 11 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to TB 35, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-43-T.Denbow.