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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4-7 HC Todd Bowles
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Indianapolis Colts

6-5 HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2023-11-26 · 13:00 ET Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

TB
37.7%
IND
62.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • IND on 7 more days rest than TB
  • IND offense: -0.005 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND defense: +0.001 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TB 21 14–28
–
IND 25 18–32
Projected margin: IND by 4 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 12

TB

Lavonte David LB Out Groin
Jamel Dean CB Out Ankle
Rachaad White RB Questionable Knee
Mike Greene DT Questionable Calf
Logan Hall DE Questionable Illness
Carlton Davis CB Questionable Hip
Devin White LB Questionable Foot

IND

Julius Brents CB Out Quadricep
Ryan Kelly C Out Concussion
Andrew Ogletree TE Out Foot
Grant Stuard LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 20
–
IND 27

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:31 FG TB (7:31) 4-C.McLaughlin 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – IND 0
  • Q1 03:05 FG IND (3:05) 7-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. TB 3 – IND 3
  • Q1 00:16 TD IND (:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – IND 9
  • Q2 09:42 TD IND (9:42) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – IND 16
  • Q2 05:12 TD TB (5:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-93-E.Johnson, Defensive Offside, declined. TB 9 – IND 17
  • Q3 10:05 FG IND (10:05) 7-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. TB 10 – IND 20
  • Q4 12:55 TD TB (12:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – IND 20
  • Q4 07:33 TD IND (7:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 17 – IND 26
  • Q4 04:13 FG TB (4:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 20 – IND 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 99%

    (7:31) 4-C.McLaughlin 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 19 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 84%

    (3:05) 7-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 29%

    (12:51) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 11-M.Pittman pushed ob at TB 29 for 24 yards (31-A.Winfield).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:36) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to IND 8, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-52-K.Britt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:48) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to TB 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 14 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 53%

    (1:52) 5-J.Camarda punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 45%

    (:07) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to TB 40 for 6 yards (24-C.Davis).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (10:05) 7-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 11 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 58%

    (6:17) 5-J.Camarda punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 60%

    (1:50) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Downs (30-D.Delaney).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 50%

    (14:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at IND 25 for 19 yards (39-D.Baker).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 38%

    (9:11) 73-B.Freeland reported in as eligible. 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 81-M.Alie-Cox to TB 19 for 30 yards (8-S.Dennis). TB-8-S.Dennis was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (4:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 11 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to TB 35, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-43-T.Denbow.

    See the full breakdown →